I am vocally anti-Brexit. To choose to walk away from the UK’s biggest marketplace in 2016 was the economic equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot. Together with the reality that it is now difficult for UK citizens to work, live and even travel in the EU. There is little doubt in my mind that the UK voters were conned by a handful of people in positions of influence, motivated either by political ambition, or for personal gain, say to protect their offshore holdings.
So I sympathise with all like-minded people who’re watching the consequences of Brexit, as Britain slides down the world rankings.
I also sympathise with Scottish people who see independence from the UK as a way of returning to the EU. But… I think the Scottish public should think really hard about this, as it’s a potential can of worms.
Scottish independence from the UK could turn out to be even more divisive than Brexit has been. Just looking at maps of voter intention, and it’s clear that there’s a stark north-south divide; the highlands want to leave the UK, but south Scotland is emphatically pro-UK.
Furthermore, it’s debatable that an independent Scotland would be allowed to join the EU. The EU currently requires a budget deficit of 3% or less before it will consider a country for membership. Scotland’s deficit is currently running at 8.6%. So just by becoming independent would give no guarantees that they’d be accepted into the EU.
Extricating Scotland from the UK could be more complex and costly than extricating the UK from the EU. Thomas Pugh, economist at Capital Economics says “The two economies are so interlinked it would make Brexit seem like a walk in the park”.
The pound sterling is a UK currency based in London, so if Scotland leave the UK, they would have some difficult choices to make.
Just as many international companies are leaving the UK because of Brexit, a number of major UK and multinational companies currently in Scotland would probably choose to be based in the UK…. Standard Life, Microsoft, Starbucks, Apple, Walmart for example.
Travel between Scotland and the rest of the UK would become problematic as there would be hard borders and custom patrols between themselves and England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Further reading…
See also An independent Scotland? The economics point to brutal austerity and a trade hit bigger than Brexit
https://www.omfif.org/2020/10/practical-problems-of-scottish-independence
